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Home • What's New • Advice & Strategy • Ask the Wizard • Gambling online • Play for Fun |
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What is the "buffalo" bet in craps?
I asked the Bone Man of Next Shooter.com. He said it is all the hard ways and either the 7 or 11. It is referred to either "buffalo -- seven" or "buffalo -- eleven."
May 31, 2006
I recently visited Imperial Palace, Las Vegas and played craps, and was very surprised to find out that horn bets there pay 15 FOR 1 and 30 FOR 1 (14 to 1 and 29 to 1 respectively) How dramatically does this change the house edge, and do you know of any other casinos that do not pay the standard of 15 to 1 and 30 to 1? -- Charles from Buffalo
As if the normal odds were not bad enough. Shame on the IP. Lowering the 2-number horn bets from 15 to 14 increases the house edge from 11.11% to 16.67%. Lowering the 1-number horn bets from 30 to 29 increases the house edge from 13.89% to 16.67%. No, I don't know of any other casinos that do this, but I don't look for this sort of thing either.
May 18, 2006
As a craps player I enjoy playing the more player friendly version of crapless found in Tunica. With their version of buy bets the vig is paid only on a winning bet. With that I am wondering on the ev of a $10 3 or 11 paying $29 after vig, or a $10 2 or 12 paying $59 after the vig. - Alex from Englewood, FL
A $10 buy bet on the 3 or 11 would pay $29.50, and on the 2 or 12 it would pay $59.50. The house edge on the 3 or 11 is 1.25%, and on the 2 or 12 it is 0.71%.
May 10, 2006
Re buy bet vig. in craps. Most online casinos on a $10 4/10 buy bet return 19.00, they claim a 5% vig. I always thought this was on the bet amount, not on the win amount which means the return should be 19.50 which is how Bodog does it. Are the other casinos wrong? - Al from Calgary
Yes. Assuming the commission is paid only on a win then it should be applied to the bet amount, not the win amount.
March 27, 2006
Hello oh great and powerful wizard. Love your site and the great education it has given me. Today I am asking a question regarding the math for determining the odds of certain "groups" of wagers. For instance, the groups of 2 bets wagering on both the 6 and 8 in craps, or the group of 4 bets wagering as an "inside" bet in craps. We know that for the 6 OR the 8, ((5/11)*7 + (6/11)*(-6))/6 = 1.515 %. BUT what if we wager on both the 6 and the 8 at the same time? Using a formula similar to that above: (((10/36)/(10/36+6/36))*7+(((6/36)/(6/36+10/36))*-12))/12 = -1.04167%. - 10 chances to win 7, and 6 chances to lose 12. No? Am I out to lunch?! Thanks for considering this problem. Best, Andy from Hollywood I get a lot of questions about combinations of craps bets. Normally I don't answer them but when you address me as "the great and powerful wizard" it greatly improves your odds of getting a reply. Your mistake is that both bets are not resolved all of the time. When you win either the 6 or 8 you are taking the other bet down, which brings down the expected loss because you are betting less. So your math is right but you are comparing apples to oranges. Oct. 3, 2005 At the showboat in Atlantic City there's a new bet on the layout where the big 6/8 was. I'm wondering what the odds were on this one-roll bet. 6-7-8 pay even money, hard 6/8 pay double. Thanks. -- B.L. from NYC The following table shows the house edge is 5.56%. Sept. 18, 2005
Last night I was at a casino in Louisiana and after playing for a while I noticed that the Big 6/8 bet was replaced with an Over/Under 7 for one roll bet. The crew member said it was new and paid even money. He then mentioned that he thought the field was a better bet. Was he right? No! The probability of winning is 15/36 = 41.67%, for a house edge of 16.67%. Even if the 2 and 12 both pay 2 to 1 on the field the house edge is only 5.56%. The over/under 7 bet ties for the any 7 bet as the worst bets on the table. April 3, 2005 I've noticed a small disturbing pattern at the craps table that I thought might be worth mentioning on your site. Players will bet the don't come bar, but if a 6 or 8 is rolled as the point they say "no action" and they keep their money on the don't come bar. The Luxor even had a boxman ENCOURAGE me to do it saying it's what "smart people who know the odds are better on the don't tend to do" or something to that effect. Not sure how you could incorporate this into your site but I've seen players doing it and casinos encouraging it and it's really stooopid. - S.R. I agree that this is a very bad decision and poor advice from the dealers. Once a point of 6 or 8 has been rolled the player edge on a don't pass or don't come bet is (6/11)*1 + (5/11)*-1 = 1/11 = 9.09%. Taking "no action" is the same as trading it for a bet with a 1.36% house edge. So this decision costs the player 10.45%. To any dealers encouraging this I say shame on you. Jan. 9, 2005 Dear Wizard, Can you please explain to me how the house advantage on craps place bets are calculated. For instance, how does the nine to five payout on a four/ten place bet work out to a 6.67% house advantage when the true odds are two to one? No matter how I do it, I can't come up with that 6.67% figure. This is driving me nuts. I would greatly appreciate an explanation. Thanks, Amanda I prefer to calculate the house edge as 1-(pr(win)*payout - pr(lose)). In this case it would be 1-((1/3)*1.8 - (2/3)) = 6.67%. However if you know the fair payout and the actual payout a convenient formula for the house edge is (f-a)/(f+1), where f=fair payout and a=actual payout. In this case (2-1.8)/(2+1) = 0.2/3 = 6.67%. Dec. 13, 2004 I saw a bet in craps called the "Fire Bet" that paid if player made 4 to 6 different points. What is the scoop on that? The following table shows what each number of points pays, the probability, and contribution to the total return. The probabilities were determined by random simulation. The exact probability of making all six points is 0.000162. I rolled four hard 4's without rolling a 7 or an easy 4. Any idea what the odds on doing that is? Can it be calculated? The probability of winning the hard 4 bet is 1/9. So the probability of winning four times in a row is (1/9)4 = 1 in 6561. Aug. 25, 2003 I know from your chart that PUT bets w/10x odds beats ALL place/buy bets. Lets talk about PUT vs. COME. A 'put' on the 6/8 with 10x odds has a house edge of .83% while a come bet w/10x odds is .18%. You're giving the house an additional 0.65% (.83-.18) edge by using a PUT vs. a COME bet. In return, you have the potential of getting more $ since you win on every 6/8 hit vs. winning every other time the # is made if you did a COME. That's my theory at least. Now in the long run, who comes out ahead with more $? I say the guy w/the PUT bet comes out with more $ since you are hitting twice as often. With a come bet, you have make the #, then wait till it hits again, cutting your hits in half. If there's something wrong w/my logic, please let me know! I get challenged a lot on my support for come bets with odds. Those against come bets are always quick to say a number has to hit twice with a come bet and only once with a place or put bet. That is not a good way to look at it. First of all with come bets you have a 8/36=22.22% chance of winning on the first roll as opposed to only 11.11% of losing. You get no such advantage on the first roll of a place or bet bet. Even if you do roll a point number it can be any number. In other words there are six point numbers that can win on a come bet, and only one on a place or put bet. Ultimately the reason the come bet with odds beats place or put bets is the house edge is less. June 14, 2003 You have a great site. Thank you for spending so much of your time helping people to learn the math behind the games. I think I am missing something on your 'Buy' bets payouts, however. For example, the 'Buy 4', which you have listed as 39:21. This implies that a winning player would have 21+39, or 60, if they win. But a winning player only has 59 (because they pay the $1 fee). Should this not be 38:21? Then you lose 21 or have 59. I can't wait to find out exactly how much of a doofus I am. - Dave from Northfield, Minnesota Don't be so hard on yourself. Very few Internet casinos implement the buy bet odds correctly. When I say the odds are 39-21 I mean that if you bet $21 (including the commission) you will get back $39 plus the original $21 if you win. So if you win you get back $60. Consider making a $20 buy bet, plus the $1 commission. The $1 is gone forever, but if you win you get back $40 in winnings plus the original $20, for a total of $60. Either way you risk $21 and get back $60 if you win. Aug. 31, 2002 How is the house advantage at craps for place bets calculated? If you PLACE 6 for $6 36 times you "should" win 5*$7 =$35 and lose 6*-$6 for a lose of $1. Or a per roll lose expectation of ~$.03 which on a $6 bet is only .5% Everything I read gives the house advantage as ~1.8% on this bet. Where is my thinking faulty? - Marshall Fay from St. Louis, USA Good question. When the house edge is quoted as 1.52% on place 6 bet, for example, it is per bet resolved. In other words it is assumed the player leaves it up there until a 6 or 7 is rolled. However if the player's intent were to leave it up for one roll only the house edge would be 0.46%. Aug. 11, 2002 Our $3 craps game pays $4.50 on a place bet of a 5 or 9, and $5.50 for a place bet on the 4 or 10. Could you tell me what the house advantage is on these bets? (I'm especially curious about the 5 or 9 since we are actually paying true odds for a place bet.) - John Stecher from Overland Park, Kansas There are 4 ways to roll a 5 (1+4, 2+3, 3+2, and 4+1) and 6 ways to roll a 7 (1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1). So the probability of rolling a 5, given that a 5 or 7 was rolled, is 4/(4+6) = 0.4. The expected value of the place bet on 5 is (0.4*$4.50 + 0.6*-$3.00)/3 = 0. So you're right there is no house edge on the 5, or the 9. On the 4 and 10 the expected value is ((1/3)*$5.50 + (2/3)*-3)/3 = -0.0556. In other words the house edge is 5.56%. I take it this is only true of $3 bets, the casino rounding the winnings up from $4.20 to $4.50. As I reported in the last issue the player can gain an advantage in blackjack if the dealer pays $4.00 for a blackjack on a $2.50 bet. June 18, 2002 After reviewing your section on house edge in craps, I am very confused about two different calculations. The discrepancy lies with the Place 5 or 9 and Buy 5 or 9. I cannot understand how the house edge could be greater on the Buy 5 or 9 when it pays more than the Place 5 or 9. For example, $100 Place 5 or 9 pays $140. $100 Buy 5 or 9 pays $150 - $5 commission for a total of $145. The house edge on a Place 5 or 9 is 4.00% and a Buy 5 or 9 is 4.76%. How could the Buy 5 or 9 house edge be greater than the Place 5 or 9 when it pays more money and both bets have the same behavior? Thank you for your time. - Mark DiStefano from Watertown, U.S. You seem to be forgetting that the 5% commission is taken off the top and the player doesn't get it back if he wins (except some casinos give it back on a buy 4 or 10 bet). A $100 place bet on 5 will get back $100+$100*(7/5) =$240 if it wins. If you bet $100 on the buy 5 the 5% commission will reduce the bet to $95.24. If the bet wins the player will get back $95.24+$95.24*(3/2) = $238.10. The place 5 bet returns an extra $1.90. May 8, 2002 What is the difference between making a come bet then taking the odds and a put bet? They sound the same to me in your explanation of put bets. Since you recommend against put bets you also recommend against come bets followed by the odds or am I not understanding you correctly? - Mitch from Hopkins, USA A put bet is like a come bet on a particular point. In other words the put bet does not get the benefit of winning on a 7 or 11 on the first roll, but the bet immediately gets "put" on the point of the bettors choice. The bettor may also immediately take odds on the put bet. Put bets are generally not a good idea because the player is twice as likely to win as lose on the first roll of a come bet, and the player is voluntarily forfeiting that roll with a put bet. However if the odds allowed are high enough a put bet, backed up with maximum odds, can have a lower house edge than a place or buy bet. My craps section states how high the odds need to get for this to happen. My craps advice in general is to stick to the line bets (pass, don't pass, come, and don't come) and backed up the odds. Feb. 11, 2002 I was playing craps at gamehouse.com and bet $20 on the horn and won $60 on a roll of 11. If the horn bet is spread out between 2,3,11,12, shouldn't I have won $75 ($5X15)? - Chance Stevens No, you were paid correctly. The 11 does pay 15:1 on the $5 of your bet. However you lost the other $15 on the 2, 3, and 12. So $75-$15=$60. Instead of taking the $15 from your bet they take it from the winnings. Jan. 20, 2001 Concerning the 5%vig on buy bets and lays how would the odds change if $1 was charged for $20-$39, $2 for $40-$59, $3 for $60-$79 and $4 for $80-$99 without round up. Your information you give is outstanding. -- Bry of Chesterton, USA Thanks for the compliment. The formula for the house edge in buy and lay bets is the commission divided by the bet plus commission. In this case the best bet is to bet $39 for the $1 commission. On the buy bet the house edge would be 1/40 = 2.5%. Assuming you can lay $78 to win $39 on the 4 and 10, and still only pay $1, the house edge would be 1/79=1.27%. I'll leave the other situations as an exercise for the reader (I hated it when my math books would say that). Nov. 11, 2000 I have read about a few casinos that pay 3-1 on both the 2 and 12 in a field bet. What Las Vegas casinos offer this bet ? - Rolland Kerr from Buffalo, USA I doubt very much that any casino would pay 3 to 1 on both the 2 and 12 without taking something else away. Such a bet would have no house edge. Nov. 4, 2000 Which casinos pay 3 to 1 odds on a field bet of 12? - Daniel O'Mara from Geneseo, USA I believe many of the downtown Las Vegas and Laughlin casinos pay 3:1 on one number or the other. However I don't know of any with certainty. It is still a bad bet. Oct. 5, 2000 Q: What is a put bet in craps? - Tony L. from ? A: A put bet is a pass or come bet made after a point has already been established. Making this bet is not a good idea. The odds of winning a pass or come bet on the first roll are greater than losing, thus it would be foolish to give up this first roll. However if you absolutely must cover a certain number and the the table allows a large multiple on the odds, like 10X, then a put bet backed up with maximum odds may be a better bet than a buy or place bet, depending on the number and the multiple allowed. Aug. 20, 2000 Q: What is the house advantage on put bets with 20 times odds. Should the house allow put bets at these odds, for example someone could take $1000 with $20,000 on every number. Could you explain this to me? Thanks, Great site. ñ Bry from Chesterton, Indiana A: For other readers let me explain that a put bet is making a pass or come bet after a point has already been established. The player may choose the point to be established on the put bet. While the player can make an odds bet immediately on top of the put bet the opportunity to win on the initial roll is lost. The effect is the same as making a place bet or buying odds but the house edge is different depending on the multiple of odds allowed. In the case of 20 times odds the house edge of the put bet on the 4 and 10 is 1.59%, on the 5 and 9 is 0.95%, and on the 6 and 8 is 0.43%. At this high level of odds allowed (which is much greater than the norm) all put bets are better than the corresponding place or buy bets. This option should never be taken at a casino that offers less than 5 times odds. At 5 times odds exactly the put bet on the 6 and 8 is slightly better than the place bet. At 10 times odds or greater all put bets become better than their corresponding place or buy bets. I shall add something to my craps section about the put bet, thanks for the idea. July 9, 2000 Q: I like your site very much. It is very informative. Thanks for putting out your thoughts. I noticed a betting strategy for craps suggested at Crappers Delight called "classic regression". In it he suggests, placing a 6 and 8, after a point is established. Then taking it down after one of them is hit. He said there are 10 combined ways to make the 6 and 8, but only 6 combined ways to make the 7. It sounds logical, but I've seen where you are able to show, that what appears logical on the surface is not so bright once it is analyzed. What are your thoughts on this strategy and what would the true odds be, if you did take the bets down after one hit? - Michael Andrews This is similar to a question I got last week. Yes, it is true that there are 10 ways to roll a 6 or 8 and 6 ways to roll a 7. However one must not look at the probabilities alone but weight them against the payoffs. The place bet on the 6 and 8 pays 7 to 6 odds when fair odds would pay 6 to 5. By making 6 unit place bets on the 6 and 8 and taking the other down if one wins the probability of winning 7 units is 62.5% and the probability of losing 12 units is 37.5%. If the player must cover both the 6 and 8 then the place bet is the way to go. This rate of return isn't bad but could be better. For the player who puts a priority on minimizing the overall house edge, the best strategy is to make combinations of pass, don't pass, come, and don't come bets, and always take the maximum allowable odds. June 18, 2000 Q: What happens to a place bet to win on a six if the shooter makes his point other than six. What happens to an initial come bet when the shooter makes his point on that roll. What happens to a come bet after it is moved to a number (lets say 5) and the shooter makes his point of lets say 4. As per "craps strategies from crappers delight" I have read that the average shooter rolls the dice five (5) times before sevening out. Your comments. - Gman from Lockport, New York For the purposes of place and come bets it doesn't make any difference of the shooter makes a point as long as it was on another number. However the odds on come and don't come bets are turned off on a come out roll, unless otherwise requested. Yes, the expected number of points the shooter will roll before rolling a 7 is 5. However this does not mean that after rolling 5 points a 7 is overdue, the odds of rolling a 7 are always 1/6. April 22, 2000
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