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Questions about Probability, Statistics, & Math

Probability FAQ
General probabilities, statistics, & math
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NOTE: Probabilities for specific games (e.g., blackjack) are listed in the section for that game, not here. This probabilities section is only for general questions about probability, risk of ruin, and other gambling math issues.

Three logicians are playing a game. Each must secretly write down a positive integer. The logician with the lowest unique integer will win $3. If all three have the same number, each will win $1. The logicians are selfish, and each wishes to maximize his own winnings. Communication is not allowed. What strategy will each logician follow? — Matthew from Fort Wayne, IN
The answer will appear in the next column. June 16, 2008
We've been given a challenge at work -- just for fun, and none of us can work it out. A farmer has 5 trailers full of sheep. Four of the trailers contain sheep weighing 39kg and the 5th trailer contains sheep weighing 40kg. All of the sheep are identical. He goes to the market. He wants to find out which of the trailers contains the sheep weighing 40kg, and he can only use the large weighing scales once!!! How does he do it? Please help, it is driving us all mad at my work place -- it's a vet's!! – Becca
Take one sheep from trailer 1, two from trailer 2, three from trailer 3, four from trailer 4, and zero from trailer 5. If all the sheep weighed 39 kg then the total weight would be 39 * 10 = 390 kg. However 0 to 4 sheep are one kg heavier. If the total weight is 391, then there is one heavy sheep on the scale; thus it must have come from trailer 1. Likewise, if the total weight is 392, then there are two heavy sheep on the scale, which must have come from trailer 2. In the same manner a weight of 393 means the heavy sheep are in trailer 3, a weight of 394 means the heavy sheep are in trailer 4, and a weight of 390 means the heavy sheep are in trailer 5. March 29, 2007
A test consists of 10 multiple choice questions, each with 5 possible answers, 1 of which is correct. To pass the test a student must get 60% or better on the test. If a student randomly guesses, what is the probability that the student will pass the test? – Kirk from Canton

The probability of exactly 6 correct is combin(10,6)×0.26×0.84 = 0.00550502.

The probability of exactly 7 correct is combin(10,7)×0.27×0.83 = 0.00078643.

The probability of exactly 8 correct is combin(10,8)×0.28×0.82 = 0.00007373.

The probability of exactly 9 correct is combin(10,9)×0.29×0.81 = 0.00000410.

The probability of exactly 10 correct is 0.210 = 0.00000010.

Adding the probabilities for 6 to 10 correct, the probability of at least six correct is 0.00636938.

March 5, 2007
I'm trying to compare the cost of replacing an old refrigerator now in order to save on electrical costs, vs. waiting until it dies to replace it. I can calculate how much cheaper it is to run the new fridge vs. the old one: $37/yr., that's easy. But how do I factor in the cost of the new fridge? Say the new fridge costs $425. I can't say that *all* of that $425 is a new expense, because I'll have to replace the old fridge *someday*, if not now, so I'll have that new-fridge expense at some point anyway. Let's say that a typical fridge lasts 14 years and my old fridge is 9 years old, so if I replaced it now I'd be replacing it in 5 years. I tried to make a two-column table, comparing the cost of keeping the current fridge for 9 years and then replacing it, vs. replacing it now, but I didn't know how to make an apples-to-apples comparison because I didn't know for how far into the future to consider the costs, and because the fridges are replaced in different years. How do I compare the economics of replacing now vs. replacing later? By the way, this isn't for my own situation, because my current fridge is probably 30 years old. It's for, uh, a friend. - Spanky McBluejay from Austin, TX
If you keep the current fridge then in five years you will have spent an extra $37*5 = $185 on electricity compared to a new one. If you replace it now you’ll be out $425 but assuming linear depreciation after five years it will still be worth $425*(9/14) = $273.21. So you will have lost $425*(5/14) = $151.79 due to depreciation. So the cost of depreciation of the new fridge is less than the additional electricity expense of keeping the old one, so I favor buying a new one now. July 31, 2006

How does this work?

  1. Grab a calculator. (you won't be able to do this one in your head)
  2. Key in the first three digits of your phone number (NOT THE AREA CODE)
  3. Multiply by 80
  4. Add 1
  5. Multiply by 250
  6. Add the last 4 digits of your phone number
  7. Add the last 4 digits of your phone number again.
  8. Subtract 250
  9. Divide number by 2

Do you recognize the answer? - Chris M. from Las Vegas

Let’s call the first three digits in your phone number x, and the last four y. Now let’s see what I have at each step.

  1. Ready!
  2. X
  3. 80x
  4. 80x+1
  5. 250*(80x+1) = 20000x+250
  6. 20000x+250+y
  7. 20000x+250+2y
  8. 20000x+250+2y-250 = 20000x+2y
  9. (20000x+2y)/2 = 10000x+y

So that is of course going to equal your phone number. We need the 10000x to move the prefix four places to the left, and then we add on the last four digits.

June 9, 2006
You are in a boat with a rock, on a fresh water lake. You throw the rock into the lake. With respect to the land (shore), does the water level increase, decrease, or stay the same? My co-workers think that the water level will stay the same. - David
The water level relative to the shore will decrease. Inside the boat the rock is pressing down on the canoe and thus pushing up the water around it. The amount of water displaced is equal in weight to that of the rock. For example, a 10 pound rock will displace 10 pounds of water upward. When the rock is thrown overboard the weight will not matter but rather the volume of the rock. So the rock will push upward an amount of water equal in volume to the rock. The mass of a rock is greater than that of water so the rock displaces more water pushing down on it than in it. So the level of the lake will be higher with the rock in the canoe than at the bottom of the lake. May 10, 2006

What do you think of the Bible Code? - Vince from Manila

I would put those behind it on the same level as those selling get rich quick gambling schemes. The mathematically ignorant taking advantage of the mathematically ignorant. Nov. 22, 2005

My question is about a problem that is known as the "two envelope paradox". You are on a game show. In front of you are 2 envelopes, each containing an unknown amount of cash. You are told that 1 envelope has twice as much money as the other. You are now asked to choose an envelope. You choose one. It contains $50,000. Now you are told that you can keep the envelope you picked, or swap for the other one. Should you swap? Knowing ahead of time that you could swap, then it doesn't matter, as you would just choose the envelope you ultimately want. But because you only find out about swapping after you choose an envelope, then the original selection and the option to swap are 2 independent events, correct? That said, when deciding to swap or not, the other envelope contains either twice as much or half as much as what you currently have. So it has either $100K or $25k. Since there is a 50% chance of either occurring, the Expected Value of the other envelope is $62,500. Generically speaking, if we let x = the amount you originally selected, then the other envelope's EV is 1.25x. Therefore it is always correct to swap. Is this correct? Thank you. - Derek from Boston

I'm very familiar with this problem. I address it on my web site of math problems, problem number 6. There I address the general case, including not looking in the first envelope at all. However to answer your question we can not ignore the venue of where the game is taking place. You said it was a "game show." On most game shows $50,000 is a nice win. Few contestants on the Price is Right ever make it that high. I would guess that fewer than 50% of players on Who Wants to be a Millionaire get that high. Meanwhile wins of $25,000 are not unusual on game shows. Cars are won routinely on the Price is Right, which have values of about $25,000. The $32,000 level is a common win on Who Wants to be a Millionaire. The average win on Jeopardy per show is roughly $25,000. The great Ken Jennings averaged only $34,091 over his 74 wins. So, my point is that $50,000 is a nice win for a game show, and $100,000 wins are seen much less often that $25,000. Thus as a game show connoisseur it is my opinion that the other envelope is more likely to have $25,000 than $100,000. So I say in your example it is better to keep the $50,000. It also goes to show you can never assume the chances that the other envelope has half as much or twice as much are exactly 50/50. Once you see the amount and put it in the context of the venue it is being played you can make an intelligent decision on switching, which throws the 1.25x argument out the window. Nov. 2, 2005

The radius of the circle is 1. The triangle is equilateral. Find the area of each colored region.

I don't want to blow the answer for those who want to solve it for themselves. For the answer and solution visit my other web site mathproblems.info, problem 189. Aug. 28, 2005

How does this work: www.1800gotjunk.com/genie/?

Let's express your number as 10t+u. You are asked to subtract each digit, leaving you with 10t+u-t-u = 9t, a number divisible by 9. Note how all the numbers divisible by 9 have the same item, which is the one the genie predicts. July 28, 2004

A friend sent me this, I was wondering if there was a formula as to how this works.

Often these mind reading number puzzles work because an interesting mathematical oddity. If the sum of digits of a number is divisible by 9 then the number it self is divisible by 9. Let's try it on the phone number of the Las Vegas Tropicana (702-739-2222). The sum of digit is 7+0+2+7+3+9+2+2+2+2 = 36. 36 divides evenly by 9, so 702739222 must also be divisible by 9. Here is a proof of this.
  1. Let n bet any integer. Express n as d0*1 + d1*10 + d2*100+ d3*1000+ ... + dn*10n, where dn is the first digit, dn-1 is the second, and so on.
  2. n = [d0 + d1 + d2 + ... + dn ] + [d1*9 + d2*99+ d3*999+ ...+ dn*999Ö9 ( a number with n nines)]
  3. n = [d0 + d1 + d2 + ... + dn ] + 9*[d1*1 + d2*11+ d3*111+ ... dn*111...1 (a number with n ones)]
  4. 9*any integer is evenly divisible by 9. So if d0 + d2 + d2 + ... + dn , or the sum of digits, is divisible by 9, then the entire number must be divisible by 9.

Now that we have that proof out of the way we can look at this magic trick. The problem asks you to pick any number. Then rearrange the digits to make a second number. Then subtract the smaller number from the larger number.

The answer is always going to have a sum of digits divisible by 9. Why? For every digit in the original number it appears somewhere else in the other number. Going one set of digits at a time, changing all the other numbers to zero, we could boil down each set as +/- n*[10x - 10y] (where x>=y and n is the digit) = +/-n *10y * (10x-y - 1) = 10y * (a number composed of only nines) = a number divisible by 9.

Let's look at an example. Let the original number be 1965. Scramble it up to get 6951. 6951 - 1965 = 6*(1000-10) + 9*(100-100) + 5*(10-1) + 1*(1-1000) = 6*990 + 9*0 + 5*9 + 6*-999. Note that each part is divisible by 9, thus the number you get after subtracting must also be divisible by 9, and finally the sum of digits is also divisible by 9.

The trick then asks you to circle a number except 0 and enter the sum of all the other digits. The program then only needs to add a number to the number you entered so that the sum is divisible by 9. For example if you said the sum of your digits was 13 then you must have circled a 5, because 13+5 = a number divisible by 9.

The reason you can't circle a zero is because if you did and then entered a number already divisible by 9 then the program wouldn't know whether you circled a 0 or a 9. Sept. 26, 2003

Eight golfers went to a new course. The caddy master put 8 bags on four carts at random. The golfers put 8 marked golf balls in a hat. The balls were thrown in the air. The 2 closes balls to each other were partners. In every case the partners' golf bags were already on the same cart. What is the probability of that the golf bags were paired up correctly before the throw?

The formulaic answer for the number of combinations would be combin(8,2)*combin(6,2)*combin(4,2)/fact(4) = 25*15*6/24 = 105. Another way to solve the number of combinations would be to take one golfer at random. There are 7 possible people to pair him with. Then pick another golfer at random from the six left. There are 5 possible people to pair him with. Then pick another golfer at random from the four left. There are 3 possible people to pair him with. So the number of combination is 7*5*3 = 105. Thus the answer is 1 in 105. May 5, 2003

Questions about Probability, Statistics, & Math

Probability FAQ
General probabilities, statistics, & math
Probabilities with Dice
Probabilities with Cards
Probabilities with Coins
Math-related puzzles & tricks

NOTE: Probabilities for specific games (e.g., blackjack) are listed in the section for that game, not here. This probabilities section is only for general questions about probability, risk of ruin, and other gambling math issues.

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