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Baccarat Flashing Dealers
Introduction
It has been known to happen that the dealer in baccarat will flash the next card to be dealt before closing bets. For those unfamiliar with the term, to flash a card means to show it prematurely, in this case before the player makes a bet. When this happens the player has a huge advantage. This section will tell you what to bet on according to the flashed card, the probability of winning, and your advantage. All tables are for eight decks.
The following table shows the probability of each bet winning according to the flashed card.
Probability of Winning by Flashed Card — Eight Decks
| Flashed Card | Banker Wins | Player Wins | Tie Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.495203 | 0.415228 | 0.089568 |
| A | 0.493789 | 0.415476 | 0.090736 |
| 2 | 0.490844 | 0.417197 | 0.091959 |
| 3 | 0.487016 | 0.419852 | 0.093132 |
| 4 | 0.479533 | 0.423290 | 0.097177 |
| 5 | 0.468070 | 0.433347 | 0.098583 |
| 6 | 0.442579 | 0.450141 | 0.107279 |
| 7 | 0.409506 | 0.483157 | 0.107337 |
| 8 | 0.365435 | 0.538370 | 0.096195 |
| 9 | 0.344181 | 0.559462 | 0.096357 |
The following table shows the expected value of each bet winning according to the flashed card.
Expected Value by Flashed Card — Eight Decks
| Flashed Card | Banker EV | Player EV | Tie EV | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.055215 | -0.079975 | -0.193887 | Banker |
| A | 0.053624 | -0.078313 | -0.183377 | Banker |
| 2 | 0.049105 | -0.073647 | -0.172369 | Banker |
| 3 | 0.042813 | -0.067164 | -0.161812 | Banker |
| 4 | 0.032266 | -0.056243 | -0.125407 | Banker |
| 5 | 0.011320 | -0.034723 | -0.112753 | Banker |
| 6 | -0.029691 | 0.007562 | -0.034488 | Player |
| 7 | -0.094126 | 0.073651 | -0.033967 | Player |
| 8 | -0.191207 | 0.172935 | -0.134245 | Player |
| 9 | -0.232490 | 0.215281 | -0.132787 | Player |
All things considered, the player advantage, if the dealer always flashes, is 6.76%.
Go back to baccarat
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Go to baccarat appendix 6
Outside Links
Baccarat: The Known Card — Article by Eliot Jacobson on not just the advantage of a known card in baccarat, but how advantage players attain can attain that information by exploiting the "ribbon spread."